Weekend Box Office Predictions
Forecasts driven by cultural trend signals — with a public, scored track record.
This weekend's forecast
Weekend of Jul 17, 2026
The Odyssey
$61.6M
$52.4M–$72.7M
$124.8M
56 /100
6 scored weekends
Predicted top 10
opener holdover
| # | Film | Stage | Projected | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Odyssey | opening | $61.6M | $52.4M–$72.7M |
| 2 | Moana | holdover | $25.9M | $22.0M–$29.8M |
| 3 | Toy Story 5 | holdover | $10.6M | $9.0M–$12.2M |
| 4 | Minions & Monsters | holdover | $8.9M | $7.6M–$10.2M |
| 5 | Evil Dead Burn | holdover | $7.8M | $6.6M–$9.0M |
| 6 | Young Washington | holdover | $2.8M | $2.3M–$3.2M |
| 7 | The Invite | holdover | $2.5M | $2.2M–$2.9M |
| 8 | Obsession | holdover | $2.0M | $1.7M–$2.3M |
| 9 | Supergirl | holdover | $1.4M | $1.2M–$1.7M |
| 10 | Disclosure Day | holdover | $1.3M | $1.1M–$1.5M |
How these forecasts work
We backtested recent wide releases and found that a film's cross-platform reach — how broadly buzz breaks out across platforms in our trend engine — tracks opening gross at roughly +0.77 correlation, while the raw trend score is actually anti-correlated (−0.83) because it saturates on niche titles. Openers are projected from pre-release cross-platform reach × estimated screens; holdovers decay from last weekend's actuals, modulated by current trend momentum. Every forecast is scored against actuals after the weekend — the track record below is real, not curated.
Track record
Weekend of Jul 10, 2026
9 films scored
Called #1: Moana ✓
Weekend total error +34% · in-range 11%
Weekend of Jul 3, 2026
9 films scored
Called #1: Minions & Monsters ✓
Weekend total error +45% · in-range 11%
Weekend of Jun 26, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: Toy Story 5 ✓
Weekend total error +2% · in-range 38%
Weekend of Jun 19, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: Toy Story 5 ✓
Weekend total error -49% · in-range 25%
Weekend of Jun 12, 2026
6 films scored
Called #1: Disclosure Day ✓
Weekend total error +24% · in-range 50%
Weekend of Jun 5, 2026
7 films scored
Called #1: Scary Movie ✓
Weekend total error +10% · in-range 29%