Weekend Box Office Predictions

Forecasts driven by cultural trend signals — with a public, scored track record.

This weekend's forecast

Weekend of Jun 5, 2026

Generated 2026-06-04 · model weekend-v1.1

Projected #1

Scary Movie

#1 opening

$52.8M

$44.9M–$62.3M

Top-10 total

$191.6M

Track record

— /100

0 scored weekends

Scary Movie (2026) opens at the top with a projected $52.8M. Projected top-10 weekend total: $192M. 3 new wide releases in the mix, projected from pre-release cross-platform reach — the trend signal that best predicts opening gross. 2 limited releases expanding to wide: Hope (2026), Nightmares Unleashed 2: Joseph's Revenge (2026).

Predicted top 10

opener holdover

#	Film	Stage	Projected	Range	Signal basis
1	Scary Movie	opening	$52.8M	$44.9M–$62.3M	Opener: cross-platform reach z=1.99 × ~3,300 screens
2	Backrooms	holdover	$48.8M	$41.5M–$56.2M	Holdover: 60% of last weekend's $81.4M (buzz still strong)
3	Masters of the Universe	opening	$43.3M	$36.8M–$51.0M	Opener: cross-platform reach z=0.92 × ~3,300 screens
4	Obsession	holdover	$15.1M	$12.8M–$17.4M	Holdover: 55% of last weekend's $27.4M (buzz still strong)
5	Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu	holdover	$9.3M	$7.9M–$10.7M	Holdover: 37% of last weekend's $24.5M (fading buzz)
6	Power Ballad	opening	$6.6M	$5.6M–$7.8M	Opener: cross-platform reach z=-0.25 × ~3,300 screens
7	Michael	holdover	$5.5M	$4.7M–$6.3M	Holdover: 46% of last weekend's $11.9M (steady)
8	Hope	opening	$3.9M	$3.3M–$4.5M	Expanding: limited release 2026-05-28 going wide, cross-platform reach z=-0.08 × ~1,800 screens
9	Nightmares Unleashed 2: Joseph's Revenge	opening	$3.6M	$3.1M–$4.2M	Expanding: limited release 2026-05-30 going wide, cross-platform reach z=-0.65 × ~1,800 screens
10	The Breadwinner	holdover	$2.8M	$2.4M–$3.2M	Holdover: 37% of last weekend's $7.4M (fading buzz)

How these forecasts work

We backtested recent wide releases and found that a film's cross-platform reach — how broadly buzz breaks out across platforms in our trend engine — tracks opening gross at roughly +0.77 correlation, while the raw trend score is actually anti-correlated (−0.83) because it saturates on niche titles. Openers are projected from pre-release cross-platform reach × estimated screens; holdovers decay from last weekend's actuals, modulated by current trend momentum. Every forecast is scored against actuals after the weekend — the track record below is real, not curated.