Skip to main content
Quilty FILM & TV
Quilty
Quilty
Pricing
Sign In Get your free preview
Sign In
  • All Trends
  • Kids & Family
  • Talent
  • Music
  • Social
  • Box Office
Back to Trends

Weekend Box Office Predictions

Forecasts driven by cultural trend signals — with a public, scored track record.

This weekend's forecast

Weekend of Sep 18, 2026

Generated 2026-09-16 · model weekend-v1.3
Projected #1

Resident Evil

#1 opening

$76.0M

$64.6M–$89.7M

Top-10 total

$153.2M

Track record

49 /100

15 scored weekends

Resident Evil (2026) opens at the top with a projected $76.0M. Projected top-10 weekend total: $153M. 3 new wide releases in the mix, projected from pre-release cross-platform reach — the trend signal that best predicts opening gross.

Predicted top 10

opener holdover

#FilmStageProjectedRangeSignal basis
1Resident Evilopening$76.0M$64.6M–$89.7MOpener: cross-platform reach z=2.15 × ~3,800 screens (event-scale release, TMDb popularity 110)
2You Had to Be There: How the Toronto Godspell Ignited the Comedy Revolution...opening$34.9M$29.6M–$41.2MOpener: cross-platform reach z=0.69 × ~3,300 screens
3Practical Magic 2holdover$15.2M$13.0M–$17.5MHoldover: 50% of last weekend's $30.0M (buzz still strong)
4Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottomopening$9.9M$8.4M–$11.7MOpener: cross-platform reach z=0.00 × ~3,300 screens
5Spider-Man: Brand New Dayholdover$5.0M$4.3M–$5.8MHoldover: 60% of last weekend's $8.4M (buzz still strong)
6The Odysseyholdover$3.6M$3.1M–$4.1MHoldover: 47% of last weekend's $7.6M (steady)
7Runnerholdover$2.8M$2.3M–$3.2MHoldover: 42% of last weekend's $6.5M (steady)
8Coyote vs. Acmeholdover$2.6M$2.2M–$2.9MHoldover: 40% of last weekend's $6.4M (steady)
9Hopeholdover$1.8M$1.5M–$2.1MHoldover: 55% of last weekend's $3.2M (buzz still strong)
10Buddyholdover$1.4M$1.2M–$1.6MHoldover: 38% of last weekend's $3.6M (fading buzz)

How these forecasts work

We backtested recent wide releases and found that a film's cross-platform reach — how broadly buzz breaks out across platforms in our trend engine — tracks opening gross at roughly +0.77 correlation, while the raw trend score is actually anti-correlated (−0.83) because it saturates on niche titles. Openers are projected from pre-release cross-platform reach × estimated screens; holdovers decay from last weekend's actuals, modulated by current trend momentum. Every forecast is scored against actuals after the weekend — the track record below is real, not curated.

Track record

49/100 avg 87% called #1

Weekend of Sep 11, 2026

7 films scored

Called #1: Practical Magic 2 ✓

Weekend total error +220% · in-range 14%

0/100

Weekend of Sep 4, 2026

5 films scored

Called #1: Spider-Man: Brand New Day ✓

Weekend total error -16% · in-range 0%

66/100

Weekend of Aug 28, 2026

6 films scored

Called #1: The Dog Stars → actual Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Weekend total error +109% · in-range 17%

0/100

Weekend of Aug 21, 2026

8 films scored

Called #1: Mutiny → actual Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Weekend total error +155% · in-range 25%

0/100

Weekend of Aug 14, 2026

6 films scored

Called #1: Spider-Man: Brand New Day ✓

Weekend total error -9% · in-range 17%

55/100

Weekend of Aug 7, 2026

6 films scored

Called #1: Spider-Man: Brand New Day ✓

Weekend total error +24% · in-range 17%

75/100

Weekend of Jul 31, 2026

8 films scored

Called #1: Spider-Man: Brand New Day ✓

Weekend total error -59% · in-range 38%

55/100

Weekend of Jul 24, 2026

8 films scored

Called #1: The Odyssey ✓

Weekend total error -24% · in-range 13%

75/100

Weekend of Jul 17, 2026

10 films scored

Called #1: The Odyssey ✓

Weekend total error -33% · in-range 20%

70/100

Weekend of Jul 10, 2026

9 films scored

Called #1: Moana ✓

Weekend total error +34% · in-range 11%

50/100

Weekend of Jul 3, 2026

9 films scored

Called #1: Minions & Monsters ✓

Weekend total error +45% · in-range 11%

13/100

Weekend of Jun 26, 2026

8 films scored

Called #1: Toy Story 5 ✓

Weekend total error +2% · in-range 38%

79/100

Weekend of Jun 19, 2026

8 films scored

Called #1: Toy Story 5 ✓

Weekend total error -49% · in-range 25%

63/100

Weekend of Jun 12, 2026

6 films scored

Called #1: Disclosure Day ✓

Weekend total error +24% · in-range 50%

62/100

Weekend of Jun 5, 2026

7 films scored

Called #1: Scary Movie ✓

Weekend total error +10% · in-range 29%

67/100

Product

  • Free Preview
  • Pricing
  • Quilty Score
  • Sample Report

Discovery Network

  • About the Network
  • Leaderboard
  • Membership
  • For Industry Partners

Resources

  • Blog
  • Help Center
  • Glossary
  • Guides

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Accessibility

© 2026 Quilty. All rights reserved.

Facebook Instagram